Input model | Unit | Variable | Formula | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|

Product | ||||

Pathogens contamination level | ||||

| PR | = RiskBeta (1,202) | This research; [ | |

Initial contamination level | CFU/g | C | = − LN (1 − PR) / 25g | [ |

Log CFU/g | IC | = Log(C) | ||

Transportation | ||||

Transportation | ||||

Transportation time | h | Time_{trans} | = RiskPert (0.5,4,9) | Personal communication^{1)}; This research |

Food temperature during transportation | °C | Temp_{trans} | = RiskUniform (2.12,12.54) | [ |

Growth | ||||

h0 | = Average ( | This research; [ | ||

Log CFU/g | Y0 | = Average (Y_{0i}), Fixed 2.2 | This research; [ | |

Log CFU/g | Y_{end} | = Average (Y_{endi}), Fixed 6.5 | This research; [ | |

ln(q) | = LN (1 / (EXP (h_{0}) − 1)) | This research; [ | ||

Growth rate | Log CFU/g/h | GR_{trans} | = IF (Temp_{trans} > 5.30841, (0.0214 × (Temp_{trans} − 5.30841))^{2}, 0) | This research; [ |

| Log CFU/g | C1 | = IC + 1 / (1 + EXP ( − ln(q))) × (1− (10−^{｜Y0-Yend｜}/LN(10))) × GR_{trans} × Time_{trans} | This research; [ |

Market | ||||

Market storage | ||||

Storage time | h | Time_{Mark-st} | = RiskUniform (0,24) | Personal communication; |

Food temperature during storage | °C | Temp_{Mark-st} | = RiskPert (0,4,15) | Personal communication; This research |

Growth | ||||

h_{0} | = Average ( | This research; [ | ||

Log CFU/g | Y_{0} | = Average (Y_{0i}), Fixed 2.2 | This research; [ | |

Log CFU/g | Y_{end} | = Average (Y_{endi}), Fixed 6.5 | This research; [ | |

ln(q) | = LN (1 / (EXP (h_{0}) −1)) | This research; [ | ||

Growth rate | Log CFU/g/h | GR_{Mark-st} | = IF (Temp_{Mark-st} > 5.30841, (0.0214 × (Temp_{Mark-st} − 5.30841))^{2}, 0) | This research; [ |

| Log CFU/g | C2 | = C1 + 1 / (1 + EXP (−ln (q))) × (1 − (10−^{｜Y0-Yend｜}/ LN(10))) × GR_{Mark-st} × Time_{Mark-st} | This research; [ |

Market display | ||||

Display time | h | Time_{Mark-dis} | = RiskUniform (0,72) | Personal communication; This research |

Food temperature during display | °C | Temp_{Mark-dis} | = RiskUniform (0,15) | Personal communication; This research |

Growth | ||||

h_{0} | = Average (LPD × growth rate), Fixed 0.3198 | This research; [ | ||

Log CFU/g | Y_{0} | = Average (Y_{0i}), Fixed 2.2 | This research; [ | |

Log CFU/g | Y_{end} | = Average (Y_{endi}), Fixed 6.5 | This research; [ | |

ln(q) | = LN (1 / (EXP (h0) −1)) | This research; [ | ||

Growth rate | Log CFU/g/h | GR_{Mark-dis} | = IF (Temp_{Mark-dis} > 5.30841, (0.0214 × (Temp_{Mark-dis} − 5.30841))2, 0) | This research; [ |

| Log CFU/g | C3 | = C2 + 1 / (1 + EXP (−ln (q))) × (1 − (10−^{｜Y0-Yend｜}/ LN (10))) × GR_{Mark-dis} × Time_{Mark-dis} | This research; [ |

Transportation (vehicle) | ||||

Transportation | ||||

Transportation time | h | Time_{Veh} | = RiskUniform (0.325,1.643) | [ |

Food temperature during storage | °C | Temp_{Veh} | = RiskPer t(10,18,25) | [ |

Growth | ||||

h_{0} | = Average ( | This research; [ | ||

Log CFU/g | Y_{0} | = Average (Y_{0i}), Fixed 2.2 | This research; [ | |

Log CFU/g | Y_{end} | = Average (Y_{endi}), Fixed 6.5 | This research; [ | |

ln(q) | = LN (1 / (EXP (h_{0}) −1)) | This research; [ | ||

Growth rate | Log CFU/g/h | GR_{Veh} | = IF(Temp_{Veh} > 5.30841, (0.0214 × (Temp_{Veh}-5.30841))^{2}, 0) | This research; [ |

| Log CFU/g | C4 | = C3 + 1/(1 + EXP(-ln(q))) × (1− (10−^{｜Y0-Yend｜}/ LN(10))) × GR_{Veh} × Time_{Veh} | This research; [ |

Home | ||||

Home storage | ||||

Storage time | h | Time_{Home} | = RiskUniform (0,540) | Personal communication; This research |

Food temperature during storage | °C | Temp_{Home} | = RiskLogLogistic (−29.283,33.227,26.666,Risktruncate (−5,10)) | [ |

Growth | ||||

h_{0} | = Average ( | This research; [ | ||

Log CFU/g | Y_{0} | = Average (Y_{0i}), Fixed 2.2 | This research; [ | |

Log CFU/g | Y_{end} | = Average (Y_{endi}), Fixed 6.5 | This research; [ | |

ln(q) | = LN (1 / (EXP (h_{0}) −1)) | This research; [ | ||

Growth rate | Log CFU/g/h | GR_{Home} | = IF(Temp_{Home} > 5.30841, (0.0214 × (Temp_{Home}−5.30841))^{2}, 0) | This research; [ |

| Log CFU/g | C5 | = C4 + 1 / (1 + EXP (−ln (q))) × (1− (10−^{｜Y0-Yend｜}/ LN (10))) × GR_{Home} × Time_{Home} | This research; [ |

CFU/g | C5_{CFU/g} | = 10^{C5} | ||

Consumption | ||||

Daily consumption frequency for eggs | % | ConRatio | Fixed 60.1 | [ |

CR(0) | = 1 − (60.1/100) | [ | ||

CR(1) | = 60.1 / 100 | [ | ||

CR | = RiskDiscrete ({0,1},{CR(0),CR(1)}) | [ | ||

Cooking method | ||||

Dry heat cooking | Cook(dry) | = 57.5/100 | [ | |

Moist heat cooking | Cook(moist) | = 41/100 | [ | |

Raw (uncooked) | Cook(raw) | = 1.5/100 | [ | |

Cook | = RiskDiscrete ({1,2,3}, {Cook (dry), Cook (moist), Cook (raw)}) | |||

Consumption by dry heat cooking | g | Consump_{dry-cook} | = RiskExpon (42.896,RiskShift (0.065791), RiskTruncate (0.08,360)) | This research; [ |

Consumption by moist heat cooking | g | Consump_{moist-cook} | = RiskExpon (36.061, RiskShift (−0.016726), RiskTruncate (0,340)) | This research; [ |

Consumption by raw | g | Consum_{praw} | = RiskWeibull (1.2556,41.992, RiskShift (0.067782), RiskTruncate (0.32,153.9)) | This research; [ |

g | Consump | = IF (Cook = 1, Consump_{dry-cook}, IF (Cook = 2,Consump_{moist-cook}, IF (Cook = 3,Consump_{raw}))) | ||

Total consumption | g | Amount | = IF (CR = 0,0,Consump) | |

Reduction | ||||

Dry heat cooking | Reduce(_{dry}) | = 57.5 / 100 | [ | |

Moist heat cooking | Reduce(_{moist}) | = 41 / 100 | [ | |

Raw (uncooked) | Reduce(_{raw}) | = 1.5 / 100 | [ | |

Reduce | = RiskDiscrete ({1,2,3}, {Reduce (dry), Reduce (moist), Reduce (raw)}) | |||

Reduce(dry) -dry heat cooking | ||||

Cooking time | h | Time_{dry-cook} | = RiskPert (0.03,0.07,0.1) | This research |

Food temperature during cooking | °C | Temp_{dry-cook} | = RiskPert (74 × 0.8,74,74 × 1.2) | This research; [ |

CFU/g | Reduce_{dry-cook} | = IF (AND (Temp_{dry-cook} > 74,Time_{dry-cook} > 0.07), 0, C5_{CFU/g} × 0.01) | ||

Reduce(moist) -moist heat cooking | ||||

Cooking time | h | Time_{moist-cook} | = RiskPert (0.03,0.07,0.25) | This research |

Food temperature during cooking | °C | Temp_{moist-cook} | = RiskPert (74 × 0.8,74,74 × 1.2) | This research; [ |

CFU/g | Reduce_{moist-cook} | = IF (AND (Temp_{moist-cook} > 74,Time_{moist-cook} > 0.07), 0, C5_{CFU/g} × 0.01) | ||

Reduce(raw) –raw | ||||

Cooking time | h | Time_{raw} | = RiskPert (0,0.02,0.03) | This research; |

Food temperature during cooking | °C | Temp_{raw} | = RiskUniform (0,60) | This research; |

CFU/g | Reduce_{raw} | = IF (AND (Temp_{raw} > 50, Time_{raw} > 0.02), 0, C5_{CFU/g} × 0.01) | ||

CFU/g | Reduction | = IF (Reduce = 1, Reduce_{dry-cook}, IF (Reduce = 2, Reduce_{moist-cook}, IF (Reduce = 3, Reduce_{raw}))) | ||

Final concentration | CFU/g | C6 (Cooked) | = IF (CR = 0,0,Reduction) | This research |

Dose-Response | ||||

| CFU | D | = C6 × Amount | |

Parameter of Beta Poisson | α | Fixed, 0.89 | [ | |

β | Fixed, 4.4 × 10^{5} | [ | ||

Risk | ||||

Probability of illness/person/day | Risk | = 1 − (1 + D / β) − α | [ |